First Quarter Home Stats Are In

The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

First Quarter Home Stats Are In

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First Quarter Home Stats Are In

Hi, I’m Victor Menasce. Today’s show is an unusual one as we’re going to quote national statistics. I generally don’t favor national numbers, because they tend to reflect averages. These averages often fail to capture specific situational data. However, when it comes to looking at home and rental demand, there are historic norms rooted in demographics and employment. Most market analysts use these models to predict future housing demand.

This prediction then feeds into well-understood models of household formation, which involve the age at which people typically start having children and when they purchase their first home. Recent studies are indicating that due to high housing prices and increased interest rates, fewer new homes are being bought by first-time buyers across the US. A report released earlier this week by the Mortgage Bankers Association contains some shocking statistics for single-family homes.

We will analyze these figures and attempt to grasp the potential implications for property investors, specifically in the apartment space and build-to-rent segment. Over the past two decades, first-time home buyers on average constituted 36% of home purchases. In 2024, this percentage plummeted to a record low of 24%. The first home is now being bought almost a decade later than the historical norms.

All of the major national home builders are witnessing not just a slowdown in home sales, but a sharp decline in first-time home buyers. Pulte Homes, the nation’s third-largest home builder, reported an 11% drop in first-time home sales for this year’s first quarter.

These statistics and more suggest a shift towards higher demand for rental housing. With a considerable decrease in rental starts in 2025 and uncertainty due to tariffs causing many apartment builders to postpone their projects, investors looking to enter development projects are well positioned to benefit from this slowdown.

Relax and have a fantastic rest of your day. Keep creating great things! We’ll chat more tomorrow.

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