It appears as though a lot of people got 2023 wrong. What happened happened, and what didn’t happen, didn’t happen. But the history books are actually based on the narrative that is attached to what happened. 

I was thinking hard about what to say about 2023 that would be insightful and meaningful. 

We could attach the narrative that In 2023 interest rates went up. Or did they? The yield on the 10 year treasury was 3.83% on January 1 and we closed out the year at a yield of 3.88 today, up slightly from yesterday’s 3.77%. Hardly a monumental shift in a year. Yes the rate fluctuated substantially in the middle. In the end, it went sideways, it was a huge nothing burger. 

We could say that interest rates went nowhere in 2023. It would actually be a true statement. But short term rates did increase in 2023 which definitely impacted many borrowers. 

The Fed Funds rate went up from 4.5% at the start of 2023 to 5.5% today. When you look at the numbers in that context, it doesn’t seem monumental either. If you take it back to March 2022, then you see the most rapid increase in rates in modern history. But here too, the conclusion is subjective. 


Host: Victor Menasce