On today’s show we are examining the latest Federal Reserve announcement and trying to make sense out of it for real estate investors.
We’re looking at what was said, the underlying assumptions, and what the likely decision points will be.
When asked if a soft landing was now a baseline expectation, Powell said “No, No” he wouldn't go that far. At this point he was off script. A soft landing is his hope, but not his base case. So he was clearly acknowledging that a soft landing is unlikely.
So here is my interpretation of what was said in totality. There are clear contradictions. The economic forecast says soft landing, and Powell was clear that he doesn’t believe the soft landing as the most likely outcome. He used the word “carefully” on numerous occasions to describe the Fed’s stance. He said that word more than I’ve heard him use it before. To me, that signals a recognition that conditions could change that would warrant a change in policy.
Host: Victor Menasce