On today’s show, we are looking at a human phenomenon called bias. We would like to think that the professional, economists and decision makers in government, or making objective decisions using hard data. However, we see the exact opposite and play in numerous facets of our economy. On today’s show I’m going to give you two distinct examples from vastly different areas of government. Both of these examples have had severe economic impact with nothing more than recent events to skew the decision making process.

Biases are often clouding the human decision making process. The most common of these is something called confirmation bias, confirmation bias of the process, whereby a thesis is formed, and then the decision maker goes looking for data to support the thesis. You would think having supporting data would be a good thing. however, when the decision-maker ignores conflicting data or fails to look for conflicting data, the result is confirmation bias.

If you look at the actual data in 2019, the annual consumer price rate of increase was higher than in the most recent report in 2023. 

In the face of stronger economic data, the Fed was dropping interest rates in 2019, whereby today they're increasing interest rates. When you look objectively at the data, you could argue that we should be doing the opposite.


Host: Victor Menasce

email: podcast@victorjm.com