It’s official. The economy is shrinking

The Commerce department announced yesterday that the economy shrank 1.4% in Q1.

This is no surprise. If you’ve been listening to this show for a while, you know that I have been calling out the economic contraction for some time. Do I have any special powers? Do I have a crystal ball?

The answer clearly is no. All I’m doing is paying attention to metrics that are clearly visible in the economy that are highly correlated to economic activity and are leading indicators of GDP and inflation.

You too can be days or weeks ahead of the headlines before they are announced in the official statistics, and before they make the front page of the Wall Street Journal.

This is a simple exercise in connecting the dots.


Host: Victor Menasce